2015/02（追試）
Hindsight Bias: How the Present Affects Our Image of the Past
(1) Last night, as my friend Nancy and I were watching the end of the baseball game, she turned to me and said, “I told you the home team would win, remember?” But before the game, we had discussed the home team’s chances of victory, and she’d estimated their chances of winning at about fifty-fifty. Was Nancy lying to me? Or did she really believe that she’d correctly predicted the outcome of the game? Researchers would tell us that the latter is the case and that she was revealing one type of “hindsight bias.” In other words, she’d unconsciously created a false memory of the past.
(2) Before we reject Nancy’s claims, we should remember that the human mind is far from perfect. Once we update our knowledge or beliefs, it’s difficult to recall what we used to know or believe. At the same time, we have a basic desire to see the world around us as predictable and ourselves as able to understand events and situations, even in advance. This combination of factors leads to hindsight bias. In this case, Nancy wanted to believe she had predicted correctly. Telling herself and other people “I knew it all along” helped Nancy feel more secure about her intelligence and her ability to see into the future.
(3) Revising our memory of the past may seem harmless – even necessary – to maintain a positive image of ourselves. However, hindsight biases have negative consequences as well. For one thing, they allow us to become overconfident. When we constantly tell ourselves “I knew it all along,” we start believing that we have a special ability to guess the future correctly. This, in turn, can lead us to take risks we otherwise wouldn’t. For example, we might be careless when investing money or starting a business.
(4) Applying hindsight bias to our own past is not the only trap we fall into; we can also misjudge the extent of the information others had at a specific time. This may cause serious problems in fields such as law and medicine. Imagine a situation where a patient’s X-ray shows nothing wrong. However, two months later, a second X-ray clearly shows a problem. The patient then falsely accuses the doctor of not examining the first X-ray carefully enough. In this case, the patient ignores the fact that nothing wrong appeared in the first X-ray and thinks, “The doctor should have known better!”
(5) Another kind of hindsight bias emerges when we look back on an outcome and say, “It was inevitable. There was no way to avoid it.” This may be a sensible reaction to events that are out of our control – a natural disaster or surprise terrorist attack. But imagine a high school dance team that has lost an important competition, saying, “Our performance didn’t matter. The judges had made up their minds before we even started!” This might not be a bad guess. They, however, are neglecting to consider other potential factors. If this myopia keeps the team from looking at ways to improve their dance routine, they’re likely to lose the next competition as well.
(6) The good news is that there are ways to reduce hindsight bias. One way is to keep an open mind. We should carefully list and consider as many factors as possible that could explain current conditions. At the same time, we can try to imagine other possible outcomes. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we need to be more realistic in our view of the world and of ourselves. There will always be incidents that take us by surprise, and we are not to blame if we cannot accurately predict them. Hindsight bias may be a natural response to the world around us, but the more aware we are of it, the more sensible we will be.
- According to Paragraph (1), which of the following statements is true?
① Nancy had guessed that the visiting team was likely to win.
② Nancy had intentionally tried to fool her friend.
③ Nancy had mistakenly recalled what she said.
④ Nancy had successfully anticipated which team would win. - What view is expressed by the author in Paragraph (3)?
① Hindsight bias can make us too sure of our abilities.
② People with hindsight bias are careful decision makers.
③ Predicting the future is a skill only a few people develop.
④ We need to have confidence when investing in companies. - According to Paragraph (4), which of the following statements is true?
① The doctor accepts blame for insufficient medical skills.
② The doctor finds some serious symptoms, but ignores them.
③ The patient remembers that the first X-ray showed a problem.
④ The patient unfairly criticizes the doctor for carelessness. - The word myopia in Paragraph (5) means
① a mental attitude that restricts our view of the possibilities
② a personal tendency preventing us from making up our minds
③ a physical state where we can see things from a distance
④ a situation that forces us to make a responsible decision - What is the main point of this article?
① Hindsight bias gives us a negative impression of ourselves.
② It is easy for us to remove hindsight bias from our daily lives.
③ Our judgment is drastically improved by hindsight bias.
④ We need to recognize hindsight bias in ourselves and others.
